The Timing of Tesla C.E.O.’s Tweets

Tesla Motors, the electric carmaker, is going to unveil some news on Tuesday that its chief executive, Elon Musk, described as “really exciting.”

When Mr. Musk made that announcement on Twitter on March 25 with almost no other details, Tesla’s stock jumped. But that ascent was dwarfed by the move higher that occurred on Monday after the company made another announcement, this time in an official news release. Tesla revised its forecast for first-quarter profitability, prompting a rally that hoisted its shares by nearly 16 percent on Monday.

(Shanna Hendriks, a company spokeswoman, said in an e-mail that Tesla’s announcement on Monday was not the fulfillment of Mr. Musk’s Twitter message last week. Indeed, he posted another message on Monday to say that Tuesday’s news would be “arguably more important” than Monday’s announcement.)

Tesla is a fascinating young company. It faces a legion of doubters, including many who are betting against the company’s shares because they don’t believe the company can ever sell enough cars to be viable in the longer term. But Tesla has many avid supporters who believe it will be the company that finally makes electric cars desirable, and will therefore enjoy robust, sustainable sales.

Having a C.E.O. who likes to disseminate cryptic messages of 140 characters or fewer only makes the company more fascinating. But as the noise around Tesla builds, it makes sense to look closely at its numbers - and the way it presents them.

Take the announcement on Monday that lit a fire under the stock.

In February, Tesla said it expected to be “slightly profitable” in the first quarter of 2013. But the profits cited in that forecast were not the standard measure of net income, as calculated under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. That’s because it didn’t count expenses related to compensation based on the company’s shares.

On Monday, the company updated that forecast by saying that it now expected “full profitability” in the first quarter under generally accepted accounting principles, counting the stock-based pay. The company said the profit revision was driven by selling more cars than expected - more than 4,750 in the quarter, versus its previous estimate of 4,500. In Monday’s news release, Mr. Musk underscored why GAAP profitability matters, “There have been many car start-ups over the past several decades, but profitability is what makes a company real.”

Here’s what Tesla didn’t say, though: It didn’t quantify the overall size of its order book at the end of the first quarter. There’s pent up demand for its cars right now as enthusiasts line up. As a result, the sales boost most likely came from meeting existing orders more quickly than expected.

However, what’s crucial to the company’s fortunes is how many new orders are coming in each quarter - and that figure wasn’t released on Monday. Nor was the amount of canceled orders, a negative development Tesla potentially faces.

Tesla also didn’t provide estimates of its first-quarter profits, in either dollars or earnings per share, something many publicly traded companies often do in their forecasts. Instead, it just said in the press release that “Tesla is amending its Q1 guidance to full profitability, both GAAP and non-GAAP.”

And being profitable in GAAP terms may not turn out to be a big deal. In theory, to achieve profitability based on generally accepted accounting principles, the company would just have needed to add incremental earnings in the first quarter to cover its stock-based compensation expense. In the fourth quarter, that was $14.4 million.

Interestingly, Tesla did not provide an updated forecast for a metric that investors closely track: the actual amount of actual cash its operations produce. In February, it said it expected its cash flows from operations to be “near breakeven” in the first quarter. When asked if that forecast had changed, Ms. Hendriks, the spokeswoman, said in an e-mail, “We will mention cash flows from operations, and other financial metrics, on our earnings call expected for next month.”

The timing of Tesla’s announcements is intriguing, too. It’s not clear why Tesla didn’t just announce Monday’s earnings update at the same time as whatever comes out on Tuesday. Maybe it has to do with Mr. Musk’s eagerness.

In the first Twitter post on March 25, Mr. Musk wrote, “Really exciting @TeslaMotors announcement coming on Thursday. Am going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way.” Five hours later, he put the brakes on, saying in another post, “Slight change of date to ensure no end of quarter distractions â€" will be Tues next week.”

What could Mr. Musk be referring to when he said he was going to put his money where is mouth is in a very major way One guess could be that he’s upping his stake in the company, from his current 27.5 percent, providing more cash in the process. But a cash infusion might not be viewed as a positive development for Tesla. It would suggest its operations aren’t providing enough.