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China’s Cofco to Buy Majority Stake in Noble Agriculture Unit

HONG KONG â€" Cofco Corporation, a huge Chinese state-owned foodstuffs conglomerate, agreed on Wednesday to pay $1.5 billion for a majority stake in Noble Group’s agriculture business.

The tie-up with Noble, a major commodities trader based in Hong Kong, is the second such deal in two months for Cofco, which is going increasingly global in its quest to meet China’s demands for food security amid a shortage of arable land at home. In February, Cofco bought a 51 percent stake in the Dutch agricultural commodities trader Nidera for an undisclosed sum.

A large, growing and increasingly affluent population, worsening soil and water pollution and rising urbanization rates have combined to reduce China’s arable land and put immense pressure on the country’s ability to meet its food needs domestically.

In response, China is increasingly looking overseas. Cofco â€" whose businesses span grain and oilseed trading, animal husbandry, logistics, branded food products, wine, real estate and financial services â€" is four years into a five-year plan to spend $10 billion on overseas mergers and acquisitions.

Cofco’s latest deal sees it working with a consortium of investors led by Hopu Investment, one of China’s biggest homegrown private equity groups, in acquiring a 51 percent stake in Noble Agri Limited. Noble, listed in Singapore, will keep a 49 percent stake in the venture.

Buying control of Noble Agri gives Cofco access to a global supply network that sources agricultural commodities from low-cost places that include South America, Africa and Eastern Europe and sells them to fast-growing markets in Asia and the Middle East. Noble Agri is a major processor and distributor of corn, wheat, soybeans and vegetable oils; a trader of cocoa, cotton, coffee and sugar; and a producer of sugar and ethanol.

Under the terms of the deal, Cofco and Hopu will make an upfront cash payment of $1.5 billion to Noble. The final price will be adjusted so that it will be equal to 1.15 times Noble Agri’s book value at the end of this year. Noble Agri’s book value at the end of 2013 was $2.8 billion and, should that remain comparable or increase by the end of 2014, the purchase price would be adjusted upward. But a write-down means the price could be reduced.

Noble Agri has been a moneymaker for Noble since it was founded in 1998 but swung to an operating loss last year. The unit’s sugar assets in Brazil account for about half of Noble Agri’s book value, analysts at Standard Chartered wrote last month in a research note.

“Market concerns have been focused on the potential need for a write-down in carrying value, particularly relating to the group’s sugar assets in Brazil,” the analysts wrote. However, they noted that sugar prices are expected to rise this year and next year. “Accordingly, we believe that write-down risks are misplaced and feel that the agri suite of assets is worth considerably more than its book.”

JPMorgan is the financial adviser to Noble Group on the deal.



To Curtail Departures, SAC Pursues 2-Year Pacts


The billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen is putting pressure on his traders to try to keep his investment firm together, as the once-powerful hedge fund awaits a judge’s decision next week on its guilty plea to securities fraud charges.

Mr. Cohen is seeking to stem a slow but steady departure of top portfolio managers by pressing those who remain to sign two-year contracts that would bind them to him until the end of 2016, said people briefed on the matter. His firm has also threatened to sue some traders who left before their existing contracts were up and required them to delay the start dates of their new jobs as a condition for their early release, these people said.

The push by Mr. Cohen to lock up as many top traders as possible is an indication that the future success of what will become a firm managing only the 57-year-old investor’s considerable fortune is still uncertain. In letters to the staff, Mr. Cohen has said the firm doesn’t intend to shrink much below its current size of 850 employees and expects to operate for many more years despite an insider trading investigation that has led to guilty pleas or convictions of eight former SAC employees.

On Monday, SAC Capital will rechristen itself Point72 Asset Management, named after its offices at 72 Cummings Point Road in Stamford, Conn. Just three days later, Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the United States District Court in Manhattan will decide whether to accept or reject the firm’s guilty plea and agreement with federal prosecutors. Under that deal, the firm will pay a $1.2 billion penalty and stop managing money for outside investors.

In the weeks leading up to the judge’s April 10 decision, Mr. Cohen and his associates have taken a number of steps to send a message to the judge and Preet Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, that the firm has changed and will no longer be a breeding ground for insider trading. SAC has said that it is “deeply remorseful” and that it is looking to hire a former prosecutor or securities regulator to police its traders. Recently, the firm signed a deal with a software company backed by the Central Intelligence Agency to monitor trading. Federal prosecutors are expected to file asentencing memo later this week.

But some employees are not convinced that the firm will remain a powerhouse stock trading shop once it becomes a family office, managing mostly $9 billion of Mr. Cohen’s money, said the people briefed on the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There is concern that the firm will have trouble recruiting top talent to replace those who leave because of the scandal and will then struggle to generate the double-digit returns it has historically produced.

As a result, the effort to get as many as half of the firm’s roughly 90 portfolio managers to sign two-year contracts is causing some consternation at the firm. The two-year contracts are being seen as an aggressive move by Mr. Cohen to limit the options of his top traders, many of whom believe they have been loyal soldiers to him during the nearly decade-long investigation into allegations of insider trading, said the people briefed on the matter.

Over the years, SAC has had a history of signing top talent to two-year contracts. The contracts historically have guaranteed a degree of stability in staffing for Mr. Cohen and have been a source of comfort to traders, giving them some degree of job security given Mr. Cohen’s mercurial temper and lack of patience for traders who lose money.

Jonathan Gasthalter, an SAC spokesman, declined to comment.

Others close to the firm say that SAC is merely doing what is necessary to keep its talent in place and ensuring that those who leave early honor the terms of their contracts.

In the last three months, about a dozen portfolio managers and analysts have left SAC for other hedge funds, including BlueCrest Capital Management, Moore Capital Management, Balyasny Asset Management and Highbridge Capital Management.

Several of those who left were still under contract to SAC and were threatened with lawsuits by the firm if they went to work at their new jobs immediately, said people briefed on the matter. Litigation was avoided in those cases because the departing employees agreed to forfeit deferred compensation owed them and agreed not to report to their new firms until their contracts expired.

Another approach Mr. Cohen has been taking to stem a rash of defections is to promise to invest some of his money with top portfolio managers after they leave to start their own hedge funds. Mr. Cohen has agreed to invest up to $200 million with Gabriel Plotkin, one of SAC’s top portfolio managers, who plans to leave at the end of the year to start his own hedge fund. Mr. Plotkin, who manages about a $1 billion for Mr. Cohen, trades mainly consumer stocks.

The people briefed on the matter said that Mr. Cohen was considering whether to enter into similar agreements with several other top traders who are also weighing departures.

Two other top traders said to be exploring whether to leave SAC are David Rosen, one of the firm’s top investors who employs activist strategies, and David Fiszel, a media and telecommunications trader. A person with knowledge of SAC said the two men had indicated that they intended to remain with the firm.

One concern for the firm is how to replace the firepower of traders like Mr. Plotkin.

Even though the investigation of SAC and Mr. Cohen appear to be winding down, risks still remain. Federal authorities have said they are continuing to investigate allegations of improper trading by SAC employees in a number of stocks. And several former employees who are cooperating with the investigation have yet to be sentenced.

Mr. Cohen still faces a civil administrative failure to supervise action filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Industry recruiters say those regulatory loose ends make it difficult for the firm to hire anyone but more junior investment management personnel.



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Wells Fargo Names New C.F.O.


Wells Fargo reshuffled some its top executives on Tuesday, naming a new chief financial officer and a new head of wholesale banking.

Timothy J. Sloan, 53, is leaving the C.F.O. post to head Wells Fargo’s wholesale banking group, which includes range of businesses like middle market commercial lending and international banking.  The bank named John R. Shrewsberry, 48, currently head of Wells Fargo Securities, as the new chief financial officer.

The moves come after David A. Hoyt, 58, who was worked for the company for 32 years, decided to retire from his post heading wholesale banking, Wells Fargo said.

In a statement, the chief executive, John Stumpf, said the moves “demonstrate the deep bench of high-caliber leaders at Wells Fargo and the value of rotating them into different roles to effect seamless leadership transitions.”

Mr. Sloan will continue as chief financial officer, a role he has held since 2011, until after the bank reports earnings later this month. In his new role running wholesale banking, Mr. Sloan will report directly to Mr. Stumpf and sit on the bank’s operating committee.

Mr. Sloan had a previous stint in wholesale baking, including as head of commercial banking, commercial real estate and specialized financial services.

The wholesale banking operation generated about 37 percent of the bank’s net income in the fourth quarter.



A Revolution in Money

Imagine it’s 2040.

You go to the grocery store, and when you look for the checkout counter there is none. There’s no place to pay for your groceries because you already did.

When you walked into the store, a sensor identified you, perhaps from a ring or watch you were wearing that transmitted the information. Or perhaps you didn’t need to wear anything special. Maybe a device in the store figured out who you were using a combination of facial recognition, 3-D body shape identification and your gait.

Your unique identifier is attached to your digital wallet, which transmits payment for the groceries directly to the store. But you don’t pay in dollars. Your wallet has a dozen digital currencies in it, all with different values based on a variety of factors, including loyalty programs. At certain stores, you might pay with their version of frequent-flier miles. At others, you might pay with the equivalent of a virtual credit card â€" except the credit card isn’t issued by a traditional bank.

You might also pay with credit that you received through a peer-to-peer online exchange that connects investors with people seeking short- and long-term loans. That’s how you got your mortgage and financed your self-driving car, too.

Welcome to the future, courtesy of the minds of some of the sharpest futurists around. The scenes just described may sound as if they came from a futuristic movie or an episode of “The Jetsons.” Yet, that’s just a middle-of-the-road view of the future; it gets wilder from here.

If the last three decades revolutionized the information and telecommunications industries, the next three may upend the basic tenets of finance: currency, credit and banks, as well as payment and transmission systems. Your children may even ask you, “What was it like to see that old-fashioned building called a bank?”

In recent years, we’ve already begun to see hints of an impending overhaul: the emergence of Bitcoin and the ecosystem growing around it; the adoption of peer-to-peer lending businesses like Lending Club; and the introduction of Square, the payment system, to name just a few.

And even if you believe Bitcoin is no more than a fad â€" and that may well be, given its volatility, security issues and potential regulatory challenges â€" it has raised the prospect of new virtual currencies and, at the least, cheaper and more efficient transaction mechanisms.

“Money is a very interesting philosophical idea in that we have all of humanity agreeing on this system,” said Ray Kurzweil, a futurist, inventor and author. “So even though we may radically disagree on some things â€" like let’s say the U.S. government and Al Qaeda â€" they both respect money. So it’s remarkable how we have this universal respect for this very esoteric virtual construct.”

Several prominent dreamers, including Marc Andreessen, who led the team that invented the first commercial web browser, say they believe that new virtual currencies will come to dominate the way we pay for things in the future. “Bitcoin offers a sweeping vista of opportunity to reimagine how the financial system can and should work in the Internet era, and a catalyst to reshape that system,” he wrote recently.

Mr. Kurzweil, however, is not so sure how easy it will be for new currencies to emerge. “We’ve built up respect for currencies associated with nations,” he said. “People respect dollars, mostly, I think, because of the track record, relative stability.”

Other futurists suggest that there will be dozens of ways to pay for products.

“We are going to have individually issued currencies. We already have corporations issuing currency: frequent-flier miles, although people don’t see them as that from a legal perspective,” said Heather Schlegel, a futurist and social scientist who recently started a project called the Future of Money as an online documentary series supported through â€" what else â€" Kickstarter, a crowdsourced investment tool.

Ms. Schlegel is hoping to explore various new payment methods, transactions and what it all means. Some of her exploration is beyond anything we can comprehend today: She considers, for example, the kind of manipulation of the subconscious that happens in the 2010 movie “Inception” as something that could really happen in the future.

For all the promise of new currencies and transaction systems, there is a long trail of failed efforts. In 1998, a virtual currency called Beenz was introduced. Customers earned Beenz when they visited certain websites and shopped at certain online stores. It had the backing of investors like Lawrence Ellison, the chief executive of Oracle. But for all its promise, it went bust by 2001.

Flooz was another currency born during the dot-com era that ended as quickly as it arrived, as did Internetcash.com. E-gold, a virtual currency backed by gold, also failed. All of them were plagued by some customers trying to use them for illicit purposes.

While the future of currency may be the biggest question mark around finance, shifts in the plumbing of transactions and the future of banks may be the most transformative.

What happens when you no longer need a bank to provide capital? Instead, investors and those looking for credit â€" individuals and businesses â€" meet online. Is that a real possibility? What are the regulatory ramifications? Are we more interconnected or less? Where will people store money in the future? And will it be safe?

These are the questions that fill not only the minds of today’s executives but also the minds of social scientists and investors in Silicon Valley.

Of course, while the future may look different, it may turn out to be familiar.

“Maybe nothing is going to change, really,” Ms. Schlegel said. “Maybe a lot of these new concepts are going to get rolled into the dollar and the dollar will evolve slightly, because what’s happening is all these new ideas will put pressure on the dollar to kind of be different.”

Andrew Ross Sorkin is the editor at large of DealBook. Twitter: @andrewrsorkin



The Cashless Society Meets the Loose-Change Economy

MAJ. RON BUSROE of the Salvation Army has no doubt that people are carrying a lot less cash.

Money raised by the organization’s annual Christmas kettle program fell 10 percent last year to $138 million, he said. Some of that drop could be attributed to the decline in foot traffic at retailers and fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but a big factor, he said, was that people have fewer coins and bills in their pockets.

“With a cash donation, you hear the bell, you see the kettle, you reach in your pocket, you toss in your change and you keep going,” said Major Busroe, the Salvation Army’s national secretary for community relations and development.

In a study on consumer trends, the Aite Group, a consulting firm in Boston, reported that cash use had dropped 3 percent in 2010, and it forecast a 17 percent decline by 2015.

The Salvation Army is still trying to figure out how to adapt, but many businesses have already turned to other means of payment. Airlines, for instance, now take only credit cards for in-flight food and drinks. Las Vegas casinos will soon accept prepaid cards at slot machines. Even some strip clubs are testing alternative currencies; one in New York offers its own “dance dollars.”

And some businesses have actually benefited from the move away from cash. A 2009 study of New York taxis found that drivers’ tips rose when they started accepting credit cards, to an average of about 22 percent from 10 percent.

The drop in the use of cash in the United States has been driven by a rise in the use of credit and debit cards. But more consumers are turning to mobile payments, using their smartphones to buy items as ordinary as a cup of coffee. Mobile payments doubled in the last year, according to Forrester Research, which predicts that the market will continue to grow 43 percent annually through 2018.

But the rise in mobile payments will not necessarily lead to a cashless society, but rather a society with less cash. People will still use cash for quick transactions like paying their babysitter or the person who shovels their snow. Some New York restaurants stubbornly cling to the cachet of their cash-only status. And criminals favor cash because its anonymity makes it harder to track.

Mobile payments are still a nascent market. Only 16 percent of mobile phone owners in the United States used a mobile wallet to make a point-of-sale transaction in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to a survey released by the Yankee Group.

“It’s important to recognize that when we look at the mobile wallet, we’re not looking at a displacement technology, at least not in the foreseeable future,” said Jordan H. McKee, an analyst at the Yankee Group. “We’re looking at a relatively lengthy adoption timeline.”

Consumers are holding back because of a lack of compelling need; cash and credit cards still work quite well, he said. “There is no overwhelming need to adopt a mobile payment solution as it stands today.”

Business owners like Humberto Ricardo are waiting to see what trends develop. As the co-owner of Third Rail Coffee, a small chain of cafes in Manhattan, Mr. Ricardo can react quickly to the shifting needs of his customers.

His first Third Rail location, a tiny shop in the West Village, had an unusual customer when it first opened: Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of the mobile payment system Square. Mr. Dorsey argued for the benefits of using Square, like the ease of setup and the low transaction fee of 2.75 percent. But Third Rail catered mainly to New York University students who were in a rush to get to class, and Mr. Ricardo preferred cash because anything else would slow business.

When he opened a second shop, this one in the East Village, he found a community with a different lifestyle, so he opted to go with Square to process credit card payments. “I felt like we were losing too much business,” he said. The new location had more shelf space, too, and could carry more merchandise. “The ticket items are a little higher, so it’s a little less reasonable to expect that people will have cash.”

Mr. Ricardo says he is waiting to see what technology customers adopt. “It’s like a foregone conclusion in people’s minds that cash will diminish over time, but we’re not there yet,” he said.

The field is crowded with competitors. Companies like Google and Isis battle with PayPal and Square to be the top wallet, and Apple could topple Near Field Communication technology with its iBeacon, which uses Bluetooth Low Energy for data transmission.

Standing out from the fray is Starbucks, which received much attention when it unveiled its latest app update on March 20, offering a streamlined interface and, for the first time, the ability to tip its baristas digitally.

“Tipping was a feature that customers had been asking us for a long time,” said Adam Brotman, chief digital officer at Starbucks. “They had been carrying cash less and less.”

Starbucks introduced mobile payment features in 2011, combining them with its loyalty program in an app that has gained 10 million users drawn to its convenience. The coffee chain reported last month that mobile payments were 11 percent of its weekly in-store transactions in the United States.

The app has attracted the interest of other retailers, but in an interview on CNBC, the company’s chief executive, Howard D. Schultz, played down the prospect that the company would license its app.

“We realized that we’ve created something that is highly viable not only inside Starbucks, but outside as well,” he said. “Most traditional retailers don’t have the competencies, the resources or the flexibility to make the investments today.”

Mr. Schultz added, “It’s too premature to say exactly what we are going to do.”

Like retailers, charities are also looking for options as they feel the pinch of donors carrying less cash. Some organizations have created apps to ease giving, but because donations are not allowed on iOS devices, the apps tend to focus on organizing fund-raising goals. Apps that include a “donate” button take users to the charity’s mobile website, where they have to register to make a donation.

The Salvation Army has experimented with alternative forms of donations, including QR codes and kettles that accept credit cards, Major Busroe said, but they raised little money. Text-to-give donations are more successful, he said, but they tended to be driven by special events like a concert to raise money after a disaster. Another drawback is a $10 limit on donations.

Major Busroe said the Salvation Army has also created an online red kettle program, which brought in $2.4 million last year, an increase of 14 percent, but just a fraction of the Salvation Army’s overall fund-raising. He sees a possible success in a bell-ringer app created last year by a community bank. The Salvation Army is looking at ways to expand it nationally. But technology has not produced a way to replicate the simple experience of dropping cash into a kettle.

“You put your money in and you get instant gratification,” he said. “That’s the way it’s been for 125 years.”



The Cashless Society Meets the Loose-Change Economy

MAJ. RON BUSROE of the Salvation Army has no doubt that people are carrying a lot less cash.

Money raised by the organization’s annual Christmas kettle program fell 10 percent last year to $138 million, he said. Some of that drop could be attributed to the decline in foot traffic at retailers and fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but a big factor, he said, was that people have fewer coins and bills in their pockets.

“With a cash donation, you hear the bell, you see the kettle, you reach in your pocket, you toss in your change and you keep going,” said Major Busroe, the Salvation Army’s national secretary for community relations and development.

In a study on consumer trends, the Aite Group, a consulting firm in Boston, reported that cash use had dropped 3 percent in 2010, and it forecast a 17 percent decline by 2015.

The Salvation Army is still trying to figure out how to adapt, but many businesses have already turned to other means of payment. Airlines, for instance, now take only credit cards for in-flight food and drinks. Las Vegas casinos will soon accept prepaid cards at slot machines. Even some strip clubs are testing alternative currencies; one in New York offers its own “dance dollars.”

And some businesses have actually benefited from the move away from cash. A 2009 study of New York taxis found that drivers’ tips rose when they started accepting credit cards, to an average of about 22 percent from 10 percent.

The drop in the use of cash in the United States has been driven by a rise in the use of credit and debit cards. But more consumers are turning to mobile payments, using their smartphones to buy items as ordinary as a cup of coffee. Mobile payments doubled in the last year, according to Forrester Research, which predicts that the market will continue to grow 43 percent annually through 2018.

But the rise in mobile payments will not necessarily lead to a cashless society, but rather a society with less cash. People will still use cash for quick transactions like paying their babysitter or the person who shovels their snow. Some New York restaurants stubbornly cling to the cachet of their cash-only status. And criminals favor cash because its anonymity makes it harder to track.

Mobile payments are still a nascent market. Only 16 percent of mobile phone owners in the United States used a mobile wallet to make a point-of-sale transaction in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to a survey released by the Yankee Group.

“It’s important to recognize that when we look at the mobile wallet, we’re not looking at a displacement technology, at least not in the foreseeable future,” said Jordan H. McKee, an analyst at the Yankee Group. “We’re looking at a relatively lengthy adoption timeline.”

Consumers are holding back because of a lack of compelling need; cash and credit cards still work quite well, he said. “There is no overwhelming need to adopt a mobile payment solution as it stands today.”

Business owners like Humberto Ricardo are waiting to see what trends develop. As the co-owner of Third Rail Coffee, a small chain of cafes in Manhattan, Mr. Ricardo can react quickly to the shifting needs of his customers.

His first Third Rail location, a tiny shop in the West Village, had an unusual customer when it first opened: Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of the mobile payment system Square. Mr. Dorsey argued for the benefits of using Square, like the ease of setup and the low transaction fee of 2.75 percent. But Third Rail catered mainly to New York University students who were in a rush to get to class, and Mr. Ricardo preferred cash because anything else would slow business.

When he opened a second shop, this one in the East Village, he found a community with a different lifestyle, so he opted to go with Square to process credit card payments. “I felt like we were losing too much business,” he said. The new location had more shelf space, too, and could carry more merchandise. “The ticket items are a little higher, so it’s a little less reasonable to expect that people will have cash.”

Mr. Ricardo says he is waiting to see what technology customers adopt. “It’s like a foregone conclusion in people’s minds that cash will diminish over time, but we’re not there yet,” he said.

The field is crowded with competitors. Companies like Google and Isis battle with PayPal and Square to be the top wallet, and Apple could topple Near Field Communication technology with its iBeacon, which uses Bluetooth Low Energy for data transmission.

Standing out from the fray is Starbucks, which received much attention when it unveiled its latest app update on March 20, offering a streamlined interface and, for the first time, the ability to tip its baristas digitally.

“Tipping was a feature that customers had been asking us for a long time,” said Adam Brotman, chief digital officer at Starbucks. “They had been carrying cash less and less.”

Starbucks introduced mobile payment features in 2011, combining them with its loyalty program in an app that has gained 10 million users drawn to its convenience. The coffee chain reported last month that mobile payments were 11 percent of its weekly in-store transactions in the United States.

The app has attracted the interest of other retailers, but in an interview on CNBC, the company’s chief executive, Howard D. Schultz, played down the prospect that the company would license its app.

“We realized that we’ve created something that is highly viable not only inside Starbucks, but outside as well,” he said. “Most traditional retailers don’t have the competencies, the resources or the flexibility to make the investments today.”

Mr. Schultz added, “It’s too premature to say exactly what we are going to do.”

Like retailers, charities are also looking for options as they feel the pinch of donors carrying less cash. Some organizations have created apps to ease giving, but because donations are not allowed on iOS devices, the apps tend to focus on organizing fund-raising goals. Apps that include a “donate” button take users to the charity’s mobile website, where they have to register to make a donation.

The Salvation Army has experimented with alternative forms of donations, including QR codes and kettles that accept credit cards, Major Busroe said, but they raised little money. Text-to-give donations are more successful, he said, but they tended to be driven by special events like a concert to raise money after a disaster. Another drawback is a $10 limit on donations.

Major Busroe said the Salvation Army has also created an online red kettle program, which brought in $2.4 million last year, an increase of 14 percent, but just a fraction of the Salvation Army’s overall fund-raising. He sees a possible success in a bell-ringer app created last year by a community bank. The Salvation Army is looking at ways to expand it nationally. But technology has not produced a way to replicate the simple experience of dropping cash into a kettle.

“You put your money in and you get instant gratification,” he said. “That’s the way it’s been for 125 years.”



The Credit Card of Tomorrow: Software, Not Plastic

SINCE the 1970s, paying with plastic has been pretty standard everywhere: Customers swiped their cards, signed receipts and took home their purchases.

But after security breaches at Target late last year led to the loss of personal data from as many as 110 million customers, the financial industry is racing to adopt technologies that will alter that decades-old ritual.

Driven largely by security concerns, credit card companies and issuers say they are working to make the system as consumers know it obsolete through smart chips and advanced computer programming.

To many, it is about time. The roots of the magnetic strip on credit cards extend back to World War II, ample time for thieves to learn to hack and steal those black lines of prized account information.

Credit card fraud totaled nearly $5.3 billion in the United States alone in 2012, giving the industry plenty of incentive to devise a better system. The amount lost to fraud continues to grow by 30 to 50 percent a year, according to estimates from the Aite Group, a research company.

Efforts to bolster card security were underway well before hackers broke into the systems of Target, Neiman Marcus, Michaels and other store chains. But the recent data breaches injected new urgency into adopting newer technology.

“I think this will become a defining moment about how we in the industry think about security,” said Eileen Serra, the chief executive of Chase Card Services.

The credit card industry, especially in the United States, has long relied on increasingly sophisticated analytical programs to weed out potentially fraudulent transactions. But it has also focused on a handful of technologies it contends will better protect customers in stores and online.

One is placing microprocessors onto cards, a standard known as E.M.V. for its initial backers: Europay, MasterCard and Visa. Another is known as tokenization, a way of masking consumers’ card information over the Internet.

“It’s about taking vulnerable data out of the merchant environment,” said Ellen Richey, Visa’s chief legal officer.

E.M.V. is the best-known technology. Such cards are embedded with smart chips authenticating that their bearers are their rightful users. The chip is also extraordinarily difficult for thieves to counterfeit.

Cardholders verify the transaction with a PIN or a signature. Though the latter is less secure, it will likely be more prevalent in the United States at first, though Chase and others expect to offer chip-and-PIN cards this year.

Europe and parts of Asia have already used the system for the better part of a decade, while American merchants and issuers have balked, largely because of cost. Chip-equipped cards cost an estimated $1.30 each to make, while a standard plastic card with a magnetic stripe on the back costs roughly 10 cents. Retailers, too, have been loath to update their systems to accept chip technology because of the added cost.

“E.M.V. is going to cost billions of dollars to implement in this country,” said Shirley W. Inscoe, an analyst at the Aite Group.

But research suggests that the system works. In 2005, when Britain fully phased in the E.M.V. technology, credit counterfeit card fraud was 25 percent; such fraud plummeted to 11 percent seven years later, according to the Aite Group.

Visa, MasterCard and American Express all announced road maps for adopting smart chips more than a year and a half ago, with the aim of forcing most retailers and issuers to put E.M.V. in place by October 2015 in the United States. By then, the liability for any counterfeit fraud will fall on whoever has not adopted the chip technology. (Gas stations and A.T.M.s will have until 2017 to meet the new requirements.)

From 17 million to 20 million chip cards have been issued in the United States, according to the Smart Card Alliance, an industry group. But that represents just 2 percent of the one billion cards in use.

In many ways, the chip technology is already decades old. It has been around since the 1990s, born in an era before the Internet and widespread e-commerce.

Industry officials concede that such technology would not have prevented the data breach at Target, or any sort of online fraud in which thieves obtained lists of customers’ credit card numbers. Markets where E.M.V. has been adopted have shown a significant increase in Internet fraud.

That is a gap that tokenization is meant to fill. The technology works behind the scenes of a digital transaction: Customers still put in their card number, but software then transforms that information into a one-time token â€" a randomly generated code â€" that is sent through the payment-processing chain. Thieves who intercept the code can do little with it without the means to unscramble the token.

To many in the industry, part of the technology’s appeal is that it requires less upheaval than E.M.V. Customers still put in card information as they always have. And the digital tokens are largely in the same format as traditional card numbers, but mask identifying information.

“Now you don’t have personal information around the world,” Ms. Serra said. “With tokenization, we can keep that data much more secure.”

The hope of digital tokens is that they will not be confined to any one way of paying. Websites, digital wallets and mobile devices could all use the technology, broadening its utility.

“Every device should have the same foundation,” Ed McLaughlin, MasterCard’s chief emerging payments officer, said.

Still, for years token technology lacked the sort of universal standard that underpins chip cards. But in recent months, a joint venture of Visa, MasterCard, American Express and others announced a proposed framework to ensure that everyone was on the same page. At least two of the five biggest card issuers in the United States are adopting some form of tokens, Ms. Inscoe said.

A framework for token systems is still being built, and meaningful adoption is years away, said Randy Vanderhoof, the executive director of the Smart Card Alliance. For now, chip cards will help eliminate the most obvious and pressing kinds of fraud. “If your boat is leaking in multiple places, and you can’t plug them all up at the same time, you plug the biggest one first,” Mr. Vanderhoof said.

Ultimately, while physical cards will remain in use for some time, many in the industry predict plastic as the primary way to pay will give way to digital wallets embedded in smartphones, tablets and other devices.

MasterCard is already testing a way for Australian consumers with Samsung Galaxy S4 phones to pay using their phones.

Smart chips and tokens eventually will be embedded in an array of computers, providing multiple layers of security, Mr. McLaughlin of MasterCard said. A consumer’s smartphone will not only have a unique ID, it will also generate one-of-a-kind tokens for every transaction â€" ones that can be easily be disabled if the phone is lost or stolen.

“The mag stripe will become functionally obsolete,” Ms. Richey of Visa said. “Mobile will take over.”



To Instill Love of Bitcoin, Backers Work to Make It Safe

SAN FRANCISCO - BITCOIN’S future may not rely on stabilizing its price swings or signing up more merchants to accept the virtual currency. Rather, it may rely on its image.

In the last few months, the value of Bitcoin has been cut in half, in the face of questions about security issues and concerns about new regulations.

Warren E. Buffett referred to the currency as a “mirage” in an interview last month and told people to “stay away.” Would-be adopters and investors have grown fearful as hackers develop new ways to steal Bitcoin and major Bitcoin exchanges shut down. The Internal Revenue Service has even weighed in on how Bitcoin will be taxed.

Proponents have a mounting public relations crisis on their hands, particularly as Bitcoin becomes hackers’ preferred payment method. Hackers have recently taken to mounting large scale denial-of-service attacks on tech start-ups â€" most recently, Meetup.org, a social meeting site; Vimeo, the video sharing service; and Basecamp, a project management software company â€" and demanding payments via Bitcoin as ransom to cease.

Even the Bitcoin Foundation, a nonprofit group that was set up to promote Bitcoin’s legitimate use, was marred after one of its board members was arrested and charged with money laundering.

In fact, the biggest Bitcoin holder is the United States government, after the F.B.I. seized some 144,000 coins â€" roughly $66 million at current prices â€" from Silk Road, the now-defunct digital market that prosecutors say aided drug deals and other illicit transactions.

Consumer confidence in and adoption of new technologies â€" especially regarding money â€" is highly dependent on security, or at least the public’s perception of security. To that end, Bitcoin enthusiasts, cryptographers and security researchers are putting renewed focus on security and self-policing.

They face an uphill battle. While the Bitcoin system itself is protected by strong cryptography, thieves have pilfered hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of coins by exploiting weaknesses in private key storage systems and hundreds of millions more from exchanges.

Joe Stewart and Pat Litke, two security researchers at Dell SecureWorks, set out in recent months to evaluate the threats facing Bitcoin. They discovered more than 120 unique families of malware on the Internet that had been specifically engineered to steal Bitcoin wallet files from people’s computers, or to steal coins through other means such as recording a user’s keystrokes so an attacker could grab a user’s private keys as they type them in.

The most common strains of malware they discovered were so-called wallet stealers, software specifically designed to search for a user’s Bitcoin wallet on a hard drive or in well-known file locations. The attackers would then upload the information to a remote server, extract the keys and steal coins.

Security experts have long advised the use of long, secure passwords, but Mr. Litke and Mr. Stewart found that in some cases, the attackers managed to bypass strong passcodes by using a keylogger, which records passwords when victims type them in, or by monitoring the copy-and-paste clipboard function.

When the researchers tested the cryptocurrency malware against popular antivirus systems, they found the average detection rate was an abysmal 48.9 percent. More than half of major antivirus solutions failed to detect attackers’ malicious code. And, unlike cases of credit card fraud, in which credit card companies can reimburse the victims, Bitcoin theft is similar to theft of cash. Once it’s gone, it’s probably gone for good.

“It’s incredibly easy for malware to steal Bitcoin, especially if you’re keeping them on the same computer you use to casually browse the Internet,” Mr. Stewart said. “There are so many holes for criminals to walk through.”

Mr. Stewart and other security researchers now advise users to keep their Bitcoin in so-called cold storage. The private keys needed to conduct a transaction are stored on a secure offline device, or even printed out, much like storing the bulk of one’s cash in a physical safe.

Some of the biggest Bitcoin thefts have occurred at the exchanges. Mt. Gox’s operators say hackers were able to steal more than $450 million worth of Bitcoin using a bug that tricked its system into moving a user’s coins to an attacker’s account, while simultaneously fooling Mt. Gox’s system into thinking the withdrawal did not go through.

Mt. Gox would then resend the requested amount, effectively doubling the withdrawal from a user’s account. Mt. Gox asserted that hackers used this bug to make off with 850,000 coins â€" 750,000 owned by customers and 100,000 owned by Mt. Gox at the time of the announcement. One month later, Mark Karpeles, Mt. Gox’s 28-year-old chief executive, said the company had found 200,000 coins in an old wallet.

But last week, two Swiss researchers compared Mt. Gox’s assertions with what they had witnessed across Bitcoin’s distributed network. By creating specialized nodes that could trace and dump all transactions across the Bitcoin network, they found that only 386 coins could have been successfully stolen from the Bitcoin network using the bug Mt. Gox cited. Their conclusion: Some 650,000 coins were unaccounted for.

Representatives for Mt. Gox did not return requests for comment. But after Mt. Gox was shut down in late February, other prominent exchanges were suddenly attacked. Flexcoin said it was hacked on March 2, forcing it to shut down. On March 5, Crypto-Trade also said it was attacked, but recently said it had resumed allowing Bitcoin withdrawals. To avoid similar fates, Bitcoin proponents, researchers and exchanges have started new systems and self-regulations to help instill confidence among adopters and bring Bitcoin into mainstream use.

Two programmers from the Czech Republic, Marek Palatinus and Pavol Ruznak, created the Trezor Wallet after Mr. Palatinus lost more than 3,000 coins to cyberthieves. The wallet, a hardware device that cannot be infected by malware, makes cold storage more practical. A new Bitcoin vault service, Xapo, is promising to insure deposits from any losses to hacker attacks, theft by a Xapo employee, break-ins at its vault or any bankruptcy.

Elsewhere, exchanges are working to improve “transaction integrity verification,” or the system by which transactions can be tied back to identities. An initiative called the Bison Network â€" or the Bitcoin Identity Security Open Network â€" is working with Jumio, a four-year-old credential management company backed by Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm, to validate buyer’s identities using Jumio’s software.

And after the I.R.S. announced last week that Bitcoin would be considered property and taxed as such, media reports pointed out that those living in the United States would have to begin the onerous task of tracking their Bitcoin purchases, or risk submitting fraudulent tax returns. Customers of Overstock, for example, may need accountants to figure out capital gains taxes on all the ups and downs of their Bitcoin holdings if they use the virtual currency every time they buy furniture on the site.

The worry, many say, is that mounting security and a proliferation of rules could mean death by a thousand cuts. Max Levchin, a co-founder of PayPal, the digital payment system that itself was the target for hackers before it achieved acceptance, said in an interview this week that Bitcoin’s fate would ultimately be dictated by whether users could find the right balance between security and convenience.

“What is slowing down adoption is that Bitcoin can be hard to understand and hard to use,” Mr. Levchin said. “It has to get really simple. For that simplicity to really happen, most often it necessarily has to become less secure to become more convenient.”

“But at PayPal,” Mr. Levchin added. “I’d like to claim we found the intersection. So I know it’s doable.”



Tap to Pay (Not So Much in the U.S.)

LONDON â€" Science fiction writers have long envisioned a cashless society. But some places have taken bigger steps in that direction than others.

The London transit agency, for instance, is trying out a new payment system that will allow passengers to tap a debit card on an electronic reader at a subway station and board the London Underground. In Sweden, consumers are increasingly using their phones for purchases at retailers or to buy a hamburger at McDonald’s and Burger King. And in Kenya, consumers are bypassing the traditional banking system and using a cellphone-based money transfer and microfinancing service instead.

Yet the United States, a far bigger economy than the others, has been much slower in adopting interconnected, speedy and secure solutions for making electronic payments.

In fact, it is the size of the American market that is a major reason for the delay. The costs of outfitting retailers with new equipment are much higher. And there have been disagreements among technology providers over what standard to use for mobile payments.

That is not to say that all American cities are behind their foreign counterparts. But the advances seem to be in pockets of the economy. Transit systems in Chicago, Boston and Washington, for example, have adopted proprietary payment cards that need only a tap, not a swipe. Some transit systems allow customers to buy their tickets online and download them to their smartphones.

Elsewhere around the world, the advances are more commonplace.

Shashi Verma, the director of customer experience for London’s transit agency, Transport for London, is part of a dry run in which so-called contactless payment cards â€" debit or credit cards equipped with a computer chip â€" are being tested to eventually replace the system’s Oyster smart card as the main way to enter and exit London’s transit.

Bank cards have been used successfully for pay-as-you-go rides on London buses for the last 15 months and will be accepted across the entire subway system this year.

Within two years, Mr. Verma said, the agency expected bank cards to replace the Oyster card as the primary method for monthly passes for the subway here. In the future, riders may be able to board the system just by tapping a mobile phone, he said.

It is the type of system the Metropolitan Transit Agency in New York City has envisioned as a way to replace its aging, magnetic-stripe Metrocards â€" and tested in pilot projects â€" but has never been able to adopt broadly.

“What we are doing today fits in London’s tradition of innovation,” Mr. Verma said, noting that the London Underground was the first system to use a magnetic strip for ticketing in 1961.

British consumers can also buy coffee and a muffin from a barista, pay a toll on the highway and, eventually, on London’s subway system with a tap of their bank cards as long as the purchase is under 20 pounds, or about $33. There is no need to swipe their cards or enter a four-digit personal identification number.

As in the United States, everything from local taxes to water bills can be automatically debited from bank accounts, without the need to write a paper check or worry about missing a bill in the mail.

Richard Koch, the head of policy at the UK Cards Association, a trade group, said that contactless cards started off slowly after their introduction in Britain in 2006 and were initially seen by card issuers as a way to differentiate their products. But their acceptance â€" by consumers and businesses â€" has increased rapidly in the last 18 months as more retailers accept the cards, he said.

“The proposition works best for consumers when it saves them time,” Mr. Koch said. “I find that contactless is really helpful when going in to buy a sandwich and drink at lunch time. It considerably cuts down my time in store and at the till.”

Despite a £20 limit, Mr. Koch said that average amount spent per transaction with contactless cards is about £6.50 (almost $11).

In parts of Hong Kong, the Octopus card, a contactless payment system for the transit system, is quickly becoming a catchall means of payment. Depending on the type of card issued, the Octopus can also be used to pay for parking, to buy lunch at a fast-food restaurant and to go to the cinema. Some cards also have the ability to keep two electronic wallets â€" one in Hong Kong dollars and another in renminbi for travel in mainland China.

In Sweden, consumers are taking a different approach.

Contactless payment cards are not in wide circulation. Instead, consumers are increasingly making electronic payments with their cellular phones as banks, mobile phone providers and start-ups are offering competing applications to serve as the public’s primary digital wallet.

WyWallet, which was started by the nation’s four largest mobile companies, has almost 1.2 million users, or about 20 percent of the six million mobile phones in use in Sweden, said Jakob Soderbaum, the WyWallet chief executive. That’s impressive considering Sweden as a whole has about 9.6 million residents.

“You use your phone everywhere,” Mr. Soderbaum said. “That’s the way to really change the habit and the way you’re making payments.” The culture and size of Sweden are driving factors in why consumers are rapidly moving to mobile payments, Mr. Soderbaum said.

Consumers in Sweden, particularly near Stockholm, are adept at technology and have been comfortable using cards, rather than cash, to make payments for many years, Mr. Soderbaum said.

Users can either enter their mobile number or scan their phone to make payments at retailers using WyWallet.

Sister companies to WyWallet are opening in Denmark and Norway, Mr. Soderbaum said.

Seamless, a competing Swedish company, is using its proprietary version of QR, short for “quick response,” codes to enable mobile payments.

The company’s mobile payment system, known as SEQR, was introduced in Sweden in 2012 and is used by more than 4,600 merchants there, including McDonald’s and Burger King.

The transactions are not executed through a credit or debit card network, so the cost is lower for retailers. Often the savings is passed back to consumers through digital coupons for discounted purchases or by depositing cash back into the account of a user who makes a certain amount of purchases, said Peter Fredell, the chief executive of Seamless.

The company also teams up with advertisers for offers, he said. “On average this year, we’ve given back about 100 kronor a week to people,” Mr. Fredell said. That translates to about $800 a year, he said.

The company recently announced plans to bring its technology to the United States and Britain.

In Africa, consumers are bypassing the traditional banking system altogether, instead focusing on technology to make payments. M-Pesa, the cellphone-based money transfer and microfinancing service. has become the go-to service for millions of Kenyans.

Anne Githinji, 27, a sales assistant at a fashion and clothing boutique in Nairobi, says she uses the M-Pesa service regularly. “I usually use it to purchase my phone airtime and to pay my electricity bills,” she said.

Ms. Githinji, who has been using the service since its inception in 2007, said she preferred M-Pesa to cash or other bank transactions owing to its convenience.

According to a study released in January by the Kenya Bankers Association, up to 60 percent of Kenyans use cellphones to carry out financial transactions, using it, for example, to pay for utility bills and school fees.

Only three out of every 10 Kenyans go to bank offices, while only 8 percent use automated teller machines, the report said.

The majority of M-Pesa customers have no bank accounts, but they withdraw cash and make payments or send money using their cellphones.

Safaricom, the country’s largest cellphone service provider, in partnership with Vodafone, a British telecommunications company, introduced the system in Kenya in March 2007, and it has expanded rapidly. Registered customers have a menu on their cellphone giving them the ability to move money to other phone-based accounts.

To withdraw actual currency, customers use a network of M-Pesa agents â€" 75,000 of them, scattered all over the country, compared with about 1,300 banks in Kenya as of 2013. Once an M-Pesa agent has verified a customer’s identity via the cellphone number, the cash is dispensed.

Gillian Ndeti, a senior business development officer for M-Pesa at Safaricom, said over 98 percent of all mobile money transactions in Kenya were conducted through M-Pesa.

Chad Bray reported from London and Reuben Kyama from Nairobi, Kenya.



Owner of American Lawyer Said to Put Publisher Up for Sale

The owner of American Lawyer, one of the mainstay magazines for the legal industry, has put the magazine’s publisher up for sale, a person briefed on the matter said on Tuesday.

The firm, Apax Partners, has hired Jefferies to oversee potential sale of ALM Media, this person said, cautioning that the investment concern may eventually decide against parting with the media company.

If ALM is sold, it would begin life under yet another new owner. One of Apax’s portfolio companies acquired the publisher from Wasserstein & Company, the investment vehicle of the late deal maker Bruce Wasserstein, in 2007 for about $630 million.

ALM, which Wasserstein & Co. assembled from a number of legal publications and services that now include Websites and a conference business. Among its most prominent assets are American Lawyer, The New York Law Journal and The National Law Journal.

News of Apax’s move was reported earlier by Reuters.



High-Frequency Trading Book Riles Tempers on CNBC

The new book by Michael Lewis has inflamed passions across Wall Street, stoking a debate over the business of high-frequency trading.

On Tuesday, it also made for some explosive TV.

During an otherwise quiet day for the market, Mr. Lewis, along with the star of his book, Brad Katsuyama, appeared on CNBC to face off against William O’Brien, the president of the BATS Global Markets exchange, who was clearly enraged at the book’s argument that the stock market is rigged in favor of high-speed traders. Mr. Katsuyama, who runs an upstart trading platform called IEX, which tries to stop certain aspects of speedy trading, is portrayed in the book as the hero.

Insults flew. The guests raised their voices. Floor brokers at the New York Stock Exchange, glued to their television sets, whooped and hollered at the spoken jabs.

Mr. O’Brien had been waiting for this moment since he rapidly devoured the book, “Flash Boys,” on his way to work on Monday just hours after it was released.

“Michael and Brad, shame on both of you, for falsely accusing literally thousands of people and possibly scaring millions of investors in an effort to promote a business model,” he said as the segment began.

Mr. Katsuyama, pressed to defend the assertion that the market is rigged, unleashed this zinger: “I believe the markets are rigged. I also think you’re part of the rigging.”

That set the tone for the rest of the 20-minute slugfest.

“I think he’s part of the problem,” Mr. Lewis said, referring to Mr. O’Brien, who had just called the book a “300-page commercial” for Mr. Katsuyama’s new company.

Mr. Lewis rushed to his subject’s defense.

“What he’s trying to do is solve a problem that is at the heart of capitalism right now, the unfairness in the public exchanges,” Mr. Lewis said. “He’s taking great risk to do it. I mean, yeah, he’ll make some money if it works out. But the instant questioning of his motives is kind of incredible.”

Mr. O’Brien was not through. He questioned Mr. Lewis’s journalism, saying that the author had never called him for the book.

“I visited BATS,” Mr. Lewis said.

“No, you did not. That is false,” Mr. O’Brien shot back.

In an interview before the segment, Mr. Lewis told DealBook that he visited a BATS data center in Weehawken, N.J., in February 2013, accompanied by Mr. Katsuyama and Ronan Ryan, another executive at IEX.

But to Mr. O’Brien, that wasn’t good enough. BATS is based in Kansas, he pointed out.

Mr. Lewis said he tried to speak with David Cummings, the founder of BATS, who no longer works at the company. He added that Mr. O’Brien, who formerly ran Direct Edge, which recently merged with BATS, “wasn’t actually the head of BATS when the stuff I described occurred.”

“There’s actually no point in talking to someone who’s just throwing dust in the air,” Mr. Lewis said.

Mr. O’Brien accused the author of dishonesty.

“Just stop manipulating the audience, because talking to an ex-employee is not the same as saying you talked to us,” Mr. O’Brien said, referring to Mr. Cummings.

“You didn’t try to contact any employee at BATS, and your book is riddled with inaccuracies for that and many other reasons,” Mr. O’Brien continued.

“That’s not true, that’s not true,” Mr. Lewis repeated.

At one point, Mr. Katsuyama tried to find some common ground, conceding that “computerized trading has delivered benefits to the market.”

But he didn’t back down from his contention that Mr. O’Brien is “owned by intermediaries” and “owned by” high-frequency traders. To that, Mr. O’Brien laughed.

CNBC, aware that it had stumbled upon television gold, said on Twitter that the segment was “the fight that just stopped trading at the New York Stock Exchange.”



Essay: The Real Competition to Virtual Currency

BITCOIN enthusiasts may want to study a satirical etching, published in 1792, that is now in a collection at London’s National Portrait Gallery. In one half, titled “French Liberty,” an emaciated French revolutionary gnaws on raw onions. In the other, “British Slavery,” a corpulent Englishman feasts on a giant slab of meat. The etching’s message â€" that a revolution is a farce if it fails to provide the basics â€" hangs uneasily over the world of virtual currencies.

For Bitcoin or its peers to emerge from their niche, they have to one day provide all the crucial benefits that come with the current system of money. For now, people are forgiving of currency innovations. No one expects fledgling digital money to quickly be the equal of the status quo â€" a system that has come into existence over centuries. Still, it is not clear that virtual currencies will ever have the strengths and scope of the current system, which, let’s face it, functions nearly all of the time.

One big reason we have not had revolutionary forms of new money in recent times is that the current system more or less works. That was even hinted at in the seminal 2008 paper about Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto, the real or made-up name of the currency’s creator or creators. “While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust-based model,” the paper says.

Anyone struggling to understand why digital currencies are not widely used ought to look at consumer behavior. Consumers have no problem rapidly adopting new technologies if they find them attractive. But they get a lot out of the current system. With minimal inconvenience, they can make secure noncash payments online and in stores, and they can do so around the world at any time. The existing system also allows people to store their money safely in insured banks, and those banks have the ability to create new money out of thin air when they lend to other consumers.

The virtual currencies are nowhere near achieving those things, and more to the point, they often do not want to. “As a consumer, not only am I using a real currency, I also have access to credit and access to a secure bank,” said Ed McLaughlin, chief emerging payments officer at MasterCard.

Over the last 30 years, the banking and payments system has not remained static. Credit and debit cards are now widely used, as are A.T.M.s and Internet banking. And the creativity continues as the widespread adoption of mobile phones has spawned easier ways to pay for things and do basic banking. In mid-April, Samsung is expected to release a phone that will allow users to buy items with a PayPal app, using only a finger swipe to verify the transaction. “You can look forward to a world where we don’t have user names and passwords,” Hill Ferguson, chief product officer for PayPal, said.

Virtual currencies are not close to offering such convenience and security on a broad scale. And it may be that the very stability of the current system is what provides the platform for inventing new products. “Innovation happens so much faster when it happens on a strong foundation,” Mr. McLaughlin said.

Consumers did not seem to be uppermost in the minds of Bitcoin’s creators. Instead, they seemed motivated mostly by a desire to reduce the cost of a payments system. Such savings would most likely benefit merchants far more than consumers.

And it is not necessarily the case that virtual currencies, if they ever gain broad acceptance, will ultimately be that much cheaper. One way Bitcoin tries to keep its costs down is by using its own self-reinforced method of transaction verification. The 2008 Nakamoto paper lays out an elegant mechanism by which a potential attacker of the system would instead be induced to protect the system. “He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules, such rules that favor him with more new coins than everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his own wealth,” the paper contends.

But that mechanism may not be enough to reach the broader security of existing currencies. In recent weeks, large amounts of Bitcoin have apparently gone missing. And even if a virtual currency proves over time that its own system is secure, governments may demand wider types of compliance â€" to prevent abuses like money-laundering and fraud â€" that push up the costs of using it.

“There are real costs that go along with managing those risks,” said Jim McCarthy, global head of innovation and strategic partnerships at Visa.

Many supporters of virtual currencies would naturally resist government interference in their systems. At the same time, the authorities may feel uncomfortable allowing too many transactions in them, especially if they are hard to monitor.

In contrast, one of the advantages of the existing system is that it has long operated within the confines of society. The dollar is embedded in America’s democracy. That gives voters some say over the government entities that back, spend and print the nation’s currency. Law enforcement knows it well and is able to demand that banks provide information on potential criminal activities.

One of the most persuasive arguments for new currencies is that over the years, governments have had a tendency to debase and mishandle existing currencies, leading to financial instability and inflation. Some libertarians support virtual currencies because they stand apart from government interference, like a digital gold standard.

But again, such aspirations show little concern for the needs of ordinary people. The current system was, after all, able to right itself after it nearly failed in 2008. The authorities prevented a grim spiral that could have pushed unemployment even higher than it was after the crisis. The efforts that brought the system back from the brink, including printing money and shoring up the banks, were made possible by the dollar’s inherent flexibility and its roots in America’s democracy.

Virtual currencies may never have the ability to bend during times of emergency, and that may be their undoing or, at least, the reason they do not go far.

The status quo is, of course, imperfect in many ways. There is a chance that some aspects of virtual currencies will be adopted by the current system, making it stronger. But as things stand today, digital money is highly unlikely to become the new status quo. Anyone hoping to feast on Bitcoin may not get anything more than raw onions.



Inside the (Smaller) Bank Branch of the Future

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Inside the low-slung, nondescript beige building on the edge of an industrial parking lot here, JPMorgan Chase executives are conducting a vast experiment to construct bank branches of the future â€" complete with cash machines unlocked by palm and iris scanners instead of debit cards. They hope the new branches will fundamentally upend Americans’ relationship with banking.

At the lab, which is where JPMorgan has an expansive footprint because of its two-million-square-foot retail banking headquarters, employees are trying to harness the latest technologies to reimagine the bank branch from the stodgy, teller-oriented banks with huge vaults to nimbler structures. The aim, in part, is to offer more services for customers in far less space.

The effort has gained urgency across the industry as a growing number of customers use mobile technologies to conduct many traditional banking functions, like check deposits and paying bills, without ever stepping into a branch. Either the bank branches adapt or they go the way of video stores.

“Customers are not abandoning the branches, but they are looking for different things when they come in,” William Sheley, Chase’s head of branch and A.T.M. innovation, said in a recent interview. And to do that takes sizable investment, noted Barry Sommers, the chief executive of Chase’s Consumer Bank. “We’re investing in significant resources to find ways to improve our branch model as our customer behaviors change,” he said last month during a visit to a redesigned branch in New York.

JPMorgan is not the only institution trying to reimagine the traditional bank branch with its long rows of tellers standing behind glass like cashiers at a racetrack. Across Wall Street, banks are looking to slash expenses and wring more profit from retail banking to make up for the slowdown in revenue from traditional profit generators, like trading, after the adoption of new financial regulations.

Banking giants like Bank of America and Citigroup are working to overhaul branches with the goal of more closely resembling an Apple store, where employees holding tablets and other high-tech gadgets tend to customers.

Last year, Wells Fargo opened a 1,200-square-foot branch, a so-called minibranch, in Washington.

JPMorgan, whose legacy bank branches averaged about 4,400 square feet several years ago, has already slimmed them down to 2,500 to 3,500 square feet. But the bank is looking to make more changes, and the building in Columbus is the center of its experiments.

The building is divided neatly in two. On one side, where a sign warns visitors that top-secret technologies are being developed inside, employees test new gadgets. On the other, a large room is set up to look like one of the new bank branches that Chase has begun to introduce; There are now 300 across the country.

To reimagine the branches, JPMorgan basically started from scratch. In 2011, Brad Nolan, Chase’s lead designer of branch and A.T.M. innovation, began convening focus groups across the country to determine what customers wanted. Some of the findings, Mr. Nolan said, were pretty straightforward: space and simplicity. And overwhelmingly, Mr. Sommers said, customers headed to branches for advice rather than to simply go to the tellers.

Still, reorienting customers and changing the supremacy of the tellers took some rejiggering.

Within the new branches, the teller line is no longer the centerpiece. That has been moved slightly to the side. Instead, the focal point is occupied by express banking kiosks, a kind of souped-up A.T.M. But don’t dare call them A.T.M.s, employees say, because the kiosks have more functions than the typical cash machine. They have large flat screens that resemble a tablet. Particularly helpful, the executives said, the kiosks untether the bankers from their desks.

Carrying their own tablets, bankers can mingle among customers. It is a work in progress. JPMorgan found that customers like to be approached straight on, not from behind or to the side, Mr. Nolan said. In a series of posters on the wall here, JPMorgan executives outlined the various ways â€" the quarterback sneak, the toss play and the option play â€" to approach customers at the kiosks.

Aside from their new look, the machines allow more customized transactions. Customers can opt, for example, to get cash in various denominations, not just $20s or $50s, since the new kiosks allow borrowers to withdraw previously impossible amounts, like $133.

The new machines are intended to be safer, too. Unlike traditional A.T.M.s that must be restocked with cash, these units replenish their own supplies from deposits, cutting down on the amount of times that employees have to ferry money to the vaults. The kiosks also have small video screens that display the area around the customer, to alert them to anyone approaching from behind. “Visibility was incredibly important,” Mr. Sheley said.

But it is in the lab on the other side of the building where the real security experiments are taking place. There, employees are working on new ways for customers to gain access to their cash. The bank is testing different biometric gadgets, including technology that scans irises and palms, to replace debit cards. The tools also promise to make banking safer.

Banks have long been experimenting with biometrics â€" technology that identifies people based on unique physical traits, like a fingerprint. But the technology, once the stuff of James Bond movies and spy novels, is close to turning up in local bank branches.

Standing at a prototype kiosk on a recent Friday afternoon, Mr. Nolan offered a glimpse of how the new technology worked. He tested two different ways of obtaining cash. The first was an iris scanner, which is shaped like binoculars and affixed to the kiosk. It quickly scanned Mr. Nolan’s irises â€" the colored portions of his eyeball â€" registering the scan against one in the bank’s database. After a couple of seconds, a green light flashed, allowing Mr. Nolan to enter his PIN and begin banking.

The bank is also working on a palm scanner. It works much like the iris scanner, but is even more difficult to impersonate. The scanners recognize customers based on their unique vein pattern. And just in case the scanners evoke nightmares of an apocalyptic future where bandits chop off hands to gain access to bank accounts, the scanners also register a pulse. Put simply, you have to be alive to access the machines. JPMorgan plans to introduce the palm-scanner technology this year, but does not yet have plans to introduce the kiosks with iris scanners.

Beyond the branch experiments, JPMorgan executives in Columbus are also developing portable and completely self-contained banking kiosks that can be deployed during emergencies â€" say, after a hurricane or earthquake â€" to dispense cash even when branches are closed. The units are generator-powered and fold up into a shipping container. Security lights on the units help create a well-lighted area.

Mr. Sheley acknowledged that the experiments would continue. “You basically have to future-proof everything.”



Goldman Explores Sale of Market-Making Unit

Goldman Sachs, a fixture on Wall Street for more than 100 years, has decided to part with a business at the symbolic heart of the industry: the New York Stock Exchange.

The investment bank is exploring a sale of its designated market-maker unit, which it bought in 2000 as part of its acquisition of the trading firm Spear, Leeds & Kellogg, according to a person briefed on the matter.

At the time, Goldman paid $6.5 billion for the firm, which operated three core businesses: securities clearing and execution, floor-based market making and off-floor market making.

Goldman is valuing the unit at about $30 million, a sign of just how much technology has changed the way Wall Street conducts its business.

Goldman and the New York Stock Exchange declined to comment. The Financial Times first reported the potential sale.

Market makers facilitate trading by buying and selling shares of public companies. Once known as specialists, the industry has largely been phased out by technology.

That has left many market makers out in the cold. Once-vital firms like Spear and LaBranche & Company have largely lost their prominence. Bank of America sold its market-making business in 2011.

But while technological advances have meant that trades can be conducted faster and more cheaply, they have also concerned regulators about whether the rules have kept up.

On Monday, it was reported that the F.B.I. was investigating high-frequency traders for potential market manipulation.

“With the overwhelming majority of transactions now done over multiple electronic markets each with its own rule books, the equity-market structure is increasingly fragmented and complex,” Gary Cohn, Goldman’s chief operating officer, wrote in The Wall Street Journal earlier this month. “The risks associated with this fragmentation and complexity are amplified by the dramatic increase in the speed of execution and trading communications.”



Chinese Ambition With a Hefty Price Tag

The Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation is paying a hefty price to expand in China. The Singaporean company is realizing a long-held ambition by acquiring the Wing Hang Bank of China. But the deal, at almost $5 billion, looks expensive at a time when growth on the mainland is slowing and the Federal Reserve’s tapering is threatening to push up deposit costs.

It is no surprise that Wing Hang has chosen to sell after 77 years of family control. Despite a multiyear boom spurred by low interest rates in Hong Kong and growth in China, the bank’s return on equity last year was a pedestrian 10 percent. But the relative shortage of local takeover targets means its value has soared. After stripping out mark-to-market gains on Wing Hang’s property portfolio, and subtracting the recently announced full-year dividend, O.C.B.C.’s offer of 125 Hong Kong dollars (about $16) a share values the second-tier bank at more than two times its December book value. O.C.B.C., which has a slightly higher return on equity, trades at just 1.3 times its net worth.

Moreover, there is little immediate scope to bolster performance. O.C.B.C.’s presence in Hong Kong is limited, and anyway it has promised not to force job cuts for 18 months. In mainland China, where the purchase will double its branch network, the emphasis is on expansion rather than cost reduction.

O.C.B.C. is keen to stress the growth potential from the deal. Wing Hang gives it greater opportunity to finance trade between China and other parts of Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia, where it already has a foothold. Wing Hang’s strong funding base - loans were just 73 percent of deposits at the end of last year - is another advantage, as is its ability to capitalize on the renminbi’s growing international popularity. About 17 percent of Wing Hang’s deposits are currently in the Chinese currency.

Nevertheless, the purchase brings risks to O.C.B.C. investors. China’s economic slowdown is creating credit wobbles, while Hong Kong’s property boom is bound to have led to some lending excesses. Meanwhile, rising interest rates in the United States could reverse the cheap deposits that have flowed into both Hong Kong and Singapore in recent years. Shareholders, who will probably be asked to help finance the purchase, may pay a high short-term price for O.C.B.C.’s long-term ambition in China.

Peter Thal Larsen is Asia Editor of Reuters Breakingviews. For more independent commentary and analysis, visit breakingviews.com.



GrubHub Raises Price Range for I.P.O.

GrubHub, the online food ordering service familiar to legions of office workers, has raised its expectations for its Wall Street debut.

The company said in an amended prospectus on Tuesday that it expected to price its stock at $23 to $25 a share in its initial public offering. Previously, GrubHub estimated a price range of $20 to $22 a share.

At the midpoint of the updated range, the offering would raise $169 million and value the company at $1.88 billion.

GrubHub, which merged with Seamless last summer, is betting that investors will fill up their plates with an even bigger helping of shares. The stock market remains buoyant, and a number of technology I.P.O.’s this year â€" with the notable exception of King Digital Entertainment last week â€" have performed well.

The majority of the 7.03 million shares to be sold in the GrubHub offering will come from the company itself, while its major investors, including the private equity firms Spectrum Equity, Warburg Pincus and Thomas H. Lee Partners, plan to sell about 3 million shares.

After the offering, the directors and officers of GrubHub, a group of 12 individuals, are expected to own about 34 percent of the company.

The company plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker symbol GRUB. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.



Consumers Are Still Seeing Seams in the Mobile Wallet

LIBBY CATHEY and her sorority sisters fumbled with pesos as they split the bill at Señor Frog’s in Cancún, Mexico, over spring break last month.

But the return trip was painless. For the cab ride from the airport to New York University, two of her sorority sisters took out their smartphones and, with a few taps, reimbursed her for their portions of the fare in just a few seconds. This, according to a cadre of start-ups and big corporations, is how consumers will pay for everything in the future, from babysitters to four-star dinners, as checks become cumbersome and exact change harder to find.

New payment apps are trying to replace your physical wallet with a seamless, Internet-connected experience known as the mobile wallet. But these technologies â€" from giants like PayPal, Google and Chase as well as upstarts like Venmo and Square â€" are still in their early stages, and as they vie for attention and users, many consumers are failing to see the point, according to a report released in late March by the Federal Reserve.

“It’s a chicken-and-egg problem,” said Ginger Schmeltzer, the senior vice president for emerging payments at Fiserv, a financial services technology company. “Until there are consumers demanding to use whatever the payment option is on their mobile devices, or until there is a compelling cost saving or revenue increase that businesses feel comfortable about, the real turning point in mobile payments is not going to happen.”

The Fed found that 17 percent of smartphone owners used their devices at least once to make a payment in a brick-and-mortar store last year, compared with 6 percent of smartphone owners in 2012.

Those like Ms. Cathey who used their devices to transfer money to other people’s accounts made up 15 percent of smartphone owners last year, the Fed reported. (A little more than half of the adults in the United States own smartphones, according to a survey last June by the Pew Research Center.)

The money transfer services (or peer-to-peer payment services, as the industry calls them) do not release data about their regularly active users. But the numbers in the Fed survey â€" which include people who have tried the services just once or twice â€" point to the hurdles facing the mobile wallet on its quest for widespread acceptance.

Such services do have their converts. Ms. Cathey, 20, a junior at N.Y.U. and the president of the university’s chapter of Delta Phi Epsilon, uses “Venmo” as a verb. She and her sorority sisters rely on the app to pool money for events.

After entering their debit card and bank account information, users of Venmo can easily send money to others in their network. The service, which includes a social element, “made money matters not so awkward anymore,” Ms. Cathey said.

College students are often early adopters of technologies that become widely popular, as Facebook demonstrated. Venmo appears to be a favorite at N.Y.U., where members of the Zeta Beta Tau fraternity use it to pay dues. Another start-up, Clinkle, is aiming to appeal to college students, though that company has yet to release an app and has had a couple of high-level staff departures in the last month.

Although Silicon Valley has bet hundreds of millions of dollars in the last few years that the mobile wallet will go mainstream, many of these services are still in early stages, and it is not certain that they will ever become profitable.

One service, Square Cash, does not collect any revenue. Venmo, a five-year-old start-up based in Manhattan, earns no revenue from its primary app. Venmo did buy itself some time to develop new products and gain users: It became part of eBay last year when PayPal, an eBay subsidiary, bought its parent company, Braintree. (Venmo’s cryptic ads featuring an unsmiling man named Lucas began appearing on the New York subway late last year.)

Another obstacle facing Venmo and similar apps is that all the parties to a transaction need to be willing to use the service. Digitally splitting a check at a restaurant, for instance, might appear to be easy, but this use is “still very much in its infancy, and very small,” said Ron Shevlin, a retail banking analyst at the Aite Group, a research and consulting firm.

The other major use of the mobile wallet â€" making payments in stores, often by tapping or scanning a smartphone near the register â€" has been slow to catch on. But proponents of these services say they appeal to shoppers and businesses alike because they may incorporate loyalty programs and can reduce the time it takes to pay.

The widely acknowledged leader in adopting this technology is Starbucks, which says that 14 percent of all transactions in its stores are conducted through mobile devices. Starbucks â€" which has a close partnership with Square, the payment start-up run by Jack Dorsey, a co-founder of Twitter â€" says that paying with a smartphone is simply more convenient.

“You’re more likely to have your phone in your hand when you’re in line at Starbucks than you are to have your credit card in your hand,” said Adam Brotman, the company’s chief digital officer. “So it’s actually more convenient to use your phone.”

This reasoning fails to impress Andrew Kortina, the co-founder of Venmo, who says that mobile payments in stores will not catch on unless they offer something that traditional cash or credit card payments don’t. That could mean, say, allowing shoppers to skip the checkout line and walk out with an item with a few taps on their phone, as is already possible in Apple stores. Or perhaps automatically delivering items to a shopper’s home. (Starbucks says it plans to introduce a way for customers to order ahead with their smartphones and pick up their coffee in stores.)

“Thinking about replacing a cash register with something else is the wrong framework,” Mr. Kortina said. “There’s just so much more you could do with a phone.”

One evangelist of the mobile wallet, Carey Kolaja, the vice president for global product solutions at PayPal, said she tried to go as long as possible without using cash. During a recent trip to São Paulo, Brazil, with her team, she said, she lasted the entire week without using any reais, the Brazilian currency, though she did often resort to her credit card.

A place that regularly stymies her goal? The nail salon.

Still, the technology has not made inroads with everyone. Ben Miller, 39, an assistant professor of English and communication at Georgia State University, who was visiting a Starbucks at N.Y.U. on a recent Friday, said he saw no need to pay with his phone. “You have to carry a backup credit card anyway, so it becomes a redundant option,” he said.

Paying with a smartphone in stores “has been the next big thing for many, many rounds of next big things,” said James Wester, a research director at IDC, a technology advisory firm.

“We assumed we’d be further along by now,” he added. “We’re now just at the end of the beginning.”