A Solution for Penney May Be to Sell Itself, or Some of Its Assets

Two years ago, William A. Ackman, a newly minted board member of J. C. Penney, quietly met with the man he hoped would lead the struggling retailer to a brighter future.

Ron Johnson, then the much-lauded head of Apple’s retail arm, hesitated at first. A turnaround plan would probably require taking the company private, he told Mr. Ackman, according to a person with direct knowledge of the meeting. Yet Mr. Johnson ultimately agreed to become chief executive.

With Mr. Johnson’s ouster this week, Penney, a 111-year-old retail chain, is scrambling to ensure that it has a future at all. And the solution may be a sale of some or all of the company.

The most promising option may be trying to profit from Penney’s real estate â€" the actual property or leases of its 1,104 stores, of which it owns 429. Analysts have estimated the value of the real estate assets from $5 billion to $10 billion. The stock market value of Penney is only $3 billion.

“The vultures have been circling for a while,” said Margaret Bogenrief, a partner at ACM Partners, a boutique crisis management and distressed investing firm. “One of the problems with turnarounds is that it’s really hard to turn around a multibillion-dollar company with hundreds of shareholders.”

Penney’s woes have been another black mark in the retail investment record for Mr. Ackman, a hedge fund manager who won big with his bet on the mall operator General Growth Properties, but missed badly on investments in the Borders Group and Target. His hedge fund, Pershing Square Management, first built up its now nearly 18 percent stake in Penney in late 2010 at an average cost of $29.50 a share. On Tuesday, shares of J. C. Penney closed at $13.93, down 12.2 percent on the day.

It is not unclear what Mr. Ackman will do next. He did not respond to requests for comment.

When he began wooing Mr. Johnson, his goal was to help a big name in retailing that had fallen seriously behind the likes of Macy’s and Kohl’s. Sales lagged expectations, while expenses had crept too high.

At that time, Mr. Ackman had argued that with the backing of his fund and Vornado Realty Trust, which together owned nearly 30 percent of the stock, Mr. Johnson â€" a fellow Harvard M.B.A. like Mr. Ackman â€" would have the room he needed to follow up his time at Apple with an even bigger success story.

But the plan Mr. Johnson devised â€" overhauling hundreds of stores and eliminating coupons â€" instead pummeled Penney’s revenue and shares, culminating in a disastrous $552 million fourth-quarter loss that stunned Wall Street. Mr. Johnson publicly apologized for his missteps in February, even as he insisted that his plan would finally bear fruit.

By last week, however, Penney’s board appeared to have lost patience and decided to move on. Even Mr. Ackman publicly excoriated his man, saying at a conference last Friday that the “criticism was deserved,” according to Reuters.

For now, the company has brought back Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Myron E. Ullman III. A longtime retail executive who had led Penney for seven years, analysts regard him as a calming presence who can still Penney’s turbulent waters for at least some time.

“He must be viewed as an interim appointment, meant to stabilize the situation,” Michael Exstein, an analyst with Credit Suisse, wrote in a research note late on Monday.

Shares of Penney have fallen so far under Mr. Johnson that the company may be a tempting target for some private equity firms. By some measures, the company could support the financing necessary in a leveraged buyout. It carried $930 million in cash and short-term investments as of Feb. 2.

But with about $2.9 billion in long-term debt, the margin for error may be perilously thin.

In a research note, Standard & Poor’s analysts said they expected the company would seek additional capital or would borrow to finance operations given its “less than adequate” liquidity. Penney has said that it has access to over $1.8 billion from its main credit line.

Other retailers would have little incentive to bid for all of the company, according to analysts. Rivals like Macy’s and Kohl’s have significant geographic overlap with Penney’s stores and would most likely be interested in buying only pieces.

A combination of those moves may be necessary to plug what could become an enormous hole in Penney’s finances. The company could burn through as much as $1 billion this year, according to analysts at Piper Jaffray.

Penney has few other immediate financial problems, however. It still can borrow several hundred million dollars from a revolving credit line, and faces no significant short-term debt maturities.

William Frohnhoefer, an analyst at BTIG Research, said that the company could also sell equity to raise additional cash.

Mr. Frohnhoefer speculated that Penney could divest some of its real estate properties, selling off the land and lease it back, or subleasing some of its holdings.

Most vital for Penney’s future, analysts say, is for Mr. Ullman to devise a sound new strategy, and quickly. “The balance sheet has a number of resources that can be used to create operational success,” Mr. Frohnhoefer said. “It’s operational success that has been elusive.”